BIG RACE PREVIEW – 154TH GERMAN DERBY
OVERSEAS RAIDERS IN CLASSIC BID
Written on 01/07/23 by Darren Thrussell (info@anglogermanracing.com)
RUNNERS from England and Ireland add an international flavour to the 154th running of the IDEE German Derby at Hamburg on Sunday, which once again carries Group 1 status and a prize fund of 650,000 Euros.
Irish raider PIVOTAL TRIGGER was pitched in at the highest level as a two year old, coming home last of seven in the Group 1 Jean Luc Lagardere at Longchamp back in October, however found the drop in class to his liking when landing a conditions race at Roscommon last month on his seasonal reappearance. Usually, any runner trained by the hugely successful Jessica Harrington would warrant major interest, and although the trainer had a winner at Royal Ascot last month, it should be noted that, having been battling health issues recently, Harrington has only sent out one winner from her last 48 runners.
At first glance, the Ralph Beckett-trained IF NOT NOW would look to have little chance here, having an official rating of only 97, which would on face value usually not be good enough. However, not only has If Not Now won two of his three career starts including a hugely impressive seven length win at Sandown Park last time out, but his one defeat saw the Iffraaj colt finish 3¾ lengths third to Gregory, who went on to land the Group 2 Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot last month. With the form of his one defeat looking strong, If Not Now, whose dam Amona was placed four times at Group level in Germany including when third in the Group 1 German Oaks in 2015, could well run far beyond his official rating, and prove a major threat to the home trained runners.
The Group 2 Union Rennen at Cologne is widely regarded at the main trial for the German Derby, with Sea the Moon, Laccario and Sanmarco all having achieved the Union Rennen / German Derby double in the last ten years. All nine horses that competed in this year’s Union Rennen last month line up on Sunday. On that occasion, the Andreas Wöhler-trained STRAIGHT stormed to an impressive five length victory from the previously unbeaten MR. HOLLYWOOD and 39-1 outsider NACHTGEIST, with NAPOLITANO, SKYLO, ASPIRANT, WERACRUZ, I FIGHT FOR LIPS and VINTAGE MOON coming home in that order. However, it should be noted that Straight had a clear run down the outside of the field whilst several other runners didn’t look to get a clear passage. After two wins on soft ground, Mr. Hollywood was encountering quicker conditions for the first time, whilst Nachtgeist was a fast finishing third, giving the impression that the extra 200 metres on Sunday will suit. However, the Waldemar Hickst-trained colt is still a maiden after four races, and would need to improve again to figure here. Having had form figures of 11-2 going into the Union Rennen, Vintage Moon’s run was too bad to be true, but there must be a question mark of whether the Marcel Weiss-trained colt can recapture the form that saw him win Germany’s richest two year old race, the Ferdinand Leisten Memorial at Baden-Baden last October.
WINNING SPIRIT, LIPS FREEDOM and SIRJAN were second, fifth and eighth respectively in the Italian Derby in May, whilst MERKUR led home QUALITY ROAD for a start to finish victory in a Listed race at Düsseldorf last time out, but may find it difficult to have his own way here. WALES comes here on the back of two wins at Hannover over Sunday’s 2400 race distance, but tackles Pattern company for the first time here.
The German Derby often throws up a big priced outsider who runs into a place (Schwarzer Peter was second at 48-1 last year), and SEE PARIS, the third of trainer Henk Grewe’s runners, could be one to watch. Winner of a 52,000 Euro sales race at Cologne on his debut last July, See Paris went on to be placed in all four of his other races last season, which were all at Group level. Despite finishing down the field in both the Italian and German 2000 Guineas this year, it should be noted that See Paris’ dam won over 2500 metres, and the step up in trip could well suit here.
However, FANTASTIC MOON could well be the one to beat on Sunday. Trained in Munich by Sarah Steinberg and ridden on Sunday as he has been in all his races by the trainer’s partner Rene Piechulek, Fantastic Moon won both his starts at two, the second when winning the Group 3 Preis des Winterfavoriten at Cologne in October (See Paris second). Having finished third on possibly unsuitable heavy ground at Munich on his seasonal debut at Munich, Fantastic Moon put that performance behind him when, despite straying off a true line, he was a very impressive 4½ winner of a Group 3 contest at Baden-Baden with several of Sunday’s opponents including Vintage Moon and Straight trailing in his wake. Despite being drawn relatively wide in 16, Fantastic Moon is taken to following in the footsteps of his sire Sea the Moon, who won the German Derby in 2014.
PREDICTION:
1st – 3 FANTASTIC MOON
2nd – 14 IF NOT NOW
3rd – 9 SEE PARIS
4th – 1 STRAIGHT
5th – 7 PIVOTAL TRIGGER
6th – 2 MR HOLLYWOOD
7th – 5 WINNING SPIRIT
The race is due off at 14:15 CET (1:15 pm UK time), and a racecard for the German Derby can be found here:
https://www.deutscher-galopp.de/gr/renntage/rennen.php?id=1339373&d=20230702&s=S
The race will be broadcast LIVE on YouTube here:
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